CORRELATION OF PRICE AND VOLUME

Dear readers.

In any Technical Analysis FORUM , discussion about Volume indicator are rare. In fact in my experience , this Volume indicator is useful .

In theory , the rising of Price it should be followed with rising of transaction Volume . On the other way decreasing of Price should be followed by decreasing of transaction Volume also. So, in case of the Price are moving up , but transaction Volume are moving down , it can be assume as false rising or false transaction. In this case the rising of Price may occur just because of movement from only a few of some speculative brokers , just for keep the Price in high level in order to saving their portfolio because they already bought when the Price are in Overbought condition. In fact the real of Supply – Demand is not that good.

Systematically the correlation theory of Price and Volume as follows :

- When the Price moving up, and Volume moving up , it means market
getting stronger

- When the Price moving up , and Volume moving down , it means market
getting weaker

- When the Price moving down , but Volume moving up , it means market
will getting weaker

- When the Price moving down , but Volume moving down , it means market
will getting stronger

Off course this method is not 100 % accurate . But according to my experience I can tell around 70 % accurate. It still useful as trading tools as well.

Practically to execute your decision in trading , you need to compare or combine one technical analysis method with others method , as I usually do in my HIMAWAN FOREX’s method.

To see how this correlation works , you can see these 2 charts below :

Chart 1 :
PRICE down VOL up = market getting Weaker
PRICE up VOL up = market getting Stronger




Chart 2 :
PRICE up VOL down = market getting Weaker
PRICE down VOL down =market getting Stronger



Happy trading !!




Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX EUR USD Looking For a Strong Turning Point

EUR / USD already makes two huge triangle formation in :
-May 28 : 1st reversal in level : 1.3787
-June 16 : 2nd reversal in level : 1.3743
-July 8 : 3rd reversal in level : 1.3831

After 3rd reversal the market trading on a start of a new uptrend that will lead into new highs toward 1.4296 and then entering bullish scenario with next target to 1.4363.
A break of the 1.4230 area will confirm that scenario. Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its bullish scenario.

I placed Fibonacci 0.0 in level 1.3833 where huge reversal happened two times ; May 28 and July 8 . And place Fibonacci 100.0 in level 1.4296 equal level with July 16 HIGH and July 27 HIGH. Others Fibonacci levels will takes their positions as seen in my chart.

Recently prices have already traded up to 50 % retracement area above 1.4065 , breaking 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.4115 and entering its new trading range between 1.4115 – 1.4296 . But still below 1.4265 the key level to reach 1.4296.

Since the market not powerful enough to break 1.4265 and not reach the target in 1.4296 Fibonacci 100 yet , the market will still trading below 1.4265 to looking for a strong turning point. Market will stay in sideways with trading range around 1.4115 – 1.4265 with 1.4215 as key level inside this sideways range. I suggest not to entry position below 1.1418 until the turning point certained.

At least , there are 3 ( three ) scenarios that might happen :

Scenario I :
Market endured and zig-zag around 1.4148 , following moving up Trend Line , and entering bullish scenario toward 1.4296. On the other hand if this 1.4148 break , then I strongly assumed Market will moving down and hit 1.4115 Fibonacci 61.8

Scenario II :
Market breaking 1.4148 and will moving down to makes a triangle formation with turning point in level 1.4115 Fibonacci 61.8 , and or level 1.4065 Fibonacci 50.0 . After this turning point been hit, market will have its rebound and moving up again to continuing the bullish scenario toward 1.4296

Scenario III :
Market will moving down and breaking 1.4065 Fibonacci 50.0 , then the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market


Suggestion :
Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its bullish scenario. But don’t entry position below 1.1418 until the turning point certained.


Trading Range : 1.4115 – 1.4296
Support : 1.4115 , 1.4065
Resistance : 1.4265 , 1.4296
Trend : Sideways with Potential Up
Target : 1.4296


Happy Trading !!! July 30, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX
------------------------
visit my Blog to see how my method works :
www.himawanforex.blogspot.com

FOREX EUR USD TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY 2009 JULY 27 to 31

As my prediction in EUR long term weekly analysis , in this week EUR will moving toward 1.4275 and then 1.4363 as its target. Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its moving up trend.

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.3954 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) and Middle Bollinger are crossover . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 38.2 in a par of my Support level 1.4152. And that makes 1.4152 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.4152 is break , than the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market .

By place FIBO 38.2 in level 1.4152 , we can find FIBO 0.0 stay in level 1.4275 . I assumed this 1.4275 level as my Resistance level.

Trading Range : 1.4095 – 1.4275
Support : 1.4152
Resistance : 1.4275
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.4275 , 1.4363



Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

EUR in Long Term Weekly Analysis Target to 1.4363

After make two strong rebound in point A and point B in my chart , it is clearly seen EUR will keep moving up continuously toward 1.4363 as 2008 12 28 HIGH ( point E in my chart ). Trading range will be in : 1.4139 – 1.4363

In drawing Trend Line , I’m using point ( A ) as starting point where 1st reversal happened . Then grab the trend line hit the point ( B ) where 2nd reversal happened. We can see also this below Trend Line is touching the Middle Bollinger also.

In drawing upper Trend Line , I’m using point ( C ) as my starting point , considering a strong reversal happened in this position. Then grab the line until crossing point ( D ) where candle stick body crossed the Upper Bollinger.

In this point ( D ) level I put my Strong Support line : 1.4139 considering in this point ( D ) level , candle stick body crossed the Upper Bollinger.

To determine the target , I’m using level 1.4363 as 2008 12 28 HIGH ( point E in my chart ) as my target level , considering this level is crossing Upper Bollinger and crossing my below Trend Line in point ( F ) .


Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX GBP USD TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY 2009 JULY 27 to 31 2009

As seems in my chart , GBP this week will entering its sideways trade while continuing its moving up trend .

Resistances lie around 1.6525 ( FIBO 23.6 ) – 1.6582. A clear break of 1.6375 ( FIBO 61.8 ) would be bearish.

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6218 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing each other and also cross with Support level 1.6218 . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger ( point C in my chart ).

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5985 in a par of reversal level ( point A in my chart ) . And that makes 1.5985 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.5985 is break , then the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market.

I’m using reversal level 1.5985 ( point A in my chart ) as starting point to draw my below Trend Line ( in red color ) , grab the line crossing Support level 1.6218
( FIBO 100.0 ) with ending point hit the FIBO 61.8 level 1.6375.

For drawing upper Trend Line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail ( point B in my chart )

Between this Trend Lines , I conclude Trading Range will be in area level 1.6375 ( point D in my chart ) – 1.6582 ( point C in my chart )

Trading Range : 1.6375 – 1.6582
Support : 1.6375 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6582 , 1.6675
Trend : Sideways
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720

Click HERE to see my Chart



Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

GBP in Long Term Weekly Analysis

In using Techincal Analysis, even if you trade in short term market , you can not ignore a long term information. For example if you trade in daily market , its better for you to notice the weekly market Chart also. This will help you to make your Technical Analysis more accurate .

As seen in weekly chart , level 1.3…. ( around December 20008 ) claimed to be GBPS’s lowest level since August 2007. And start from Pebruary 2009 , we can see GBP begin its rebound and keep moving up continuously toward 1.6582 recently.

I found a Trend Line and FIBO 0.0 crossing point in 1.7332 level. In this level also I found two candle stick body are in a equal level ( point ( C ) ) in around September 2008. So, I conclude if 1.6582 is break , than GBP next target will be 1.7332. It is also can be assumed GBP trading range will be 1.6582 – 1.7332

In drawing trend line , I’m using point ( A ) as starting point where candle stick tail hit the below Bollinger , grab the line beyond point ( B ) where candle stick tail hit the medium Bollinger.

In drawing FIBO levels , I put FIBO 100 in a par level of point ( B ) and grab the line moving up until FIBO 0.0 crossed my Trend Line , and in parallel level with point ( C ) as my explanation above.


Happy Trading !!!


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 20 to 24 2009

As seems in my chart , GBP this week will entering its sideways trade while continuing its moving up trend .

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6223 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing over ( point C in my chart ) . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger ( point D in my chart ).

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5995 in a par of 2nd reversal level ( point A 2 in my chart ) . And that makes 1.5995 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.5995 is break , than the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market.


I’m using 2nd reversal level ( point A2 in my chart ) as starting point to draw my below trend line ( in red color ) with ending point crossed the FIBO 100 level.

For drawing upper trend line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail ( point B in my chart )

Between this trend lines , I conclude Trading Range will be in area level 1.6380 ( point E in my chart ) – 1.6680 ( point D in my chart )

Trading Range : 1.6380 – 1.6680
Support : 1.6080 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6582 , 1.6720
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720


Happy Trading !!!


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

GBP NEXT WEEK TRYING HARD TO BREAK 1 6582

It is clearly seen GBP are trying to break my Resistance level 1.6582 . Look at to the chart and watch highest GBP’s position in :
-June 2 closing at 1.6582
-June 11 closing at 1.6572
-June 29 closing at 1.6556
where GBP almost touch or close with 1.6582 level.

Mean while we can see at the bottom of the chart , GBP has 2 times huge reversal from its bottom level already ;
-June 5 closing at 1.5985
-July 8 closing at 1.6056

It is strongly assumed GBP will try to make a rally to break 1.6582 level .There are two possibilities can predict for next week . First possibility ; GBP will looking for its 3rd huge reversal and than jump beyond 1.6582 , and after than entering its new sideways range upper 1.6582 level. Second possibility ; GBP continue its moving up trend toward 1.6582 , breaking it , and than entering its new sideways range upper 1.6582 level

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6223 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing over . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger.

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5995 a par of 2nd reversal level. And that makes 1.5995 become a Strong Support level.

I’m using 2nd reversal level as starting point to draw my below trend line ( in red color ) with ending point hit the FIBO 100 level.

For drawing upper trend line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail

Trading Range : 1.5995 – 1.6389 and moving up to 1.6223 – 1.6720
as seems in trend line ( red color )
Support : 1.5995, 1.6075 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6480, 1.6582, 1.6720
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720


Happy Trading !!

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 13 to 17 2009

GBP This Week by HIMAWAN FOREX

As my last week prediction GBP is really moving down and breaking its 3 weeks Strong Support level 1.6218.

It might be investors are put in a doubt about GBP's trade balance , and predict the trade balance will be stay in – 7 or below. And this prediction push GBP to a bearrish market.

Since theres a significant downfall , in this week we are no more use level 1.6582 as Resistance level and level 1.6218 as Strong Support . A newly parameter is needed. Eventhough level 1.6218 is still might consider as a pshycological level.

I believe in this week GBP is in potential down trend. my Technical Analysis as appear in my chart , theres 2 trend line ( in white line color ) are sharply declined. But still theres rebound posibility as drawn in third trend line ( in white dotted color )

Please watch the “A” label below part of chart. This “A” label indicate a
point of croosingover between two trendlines . This point also stay in level 1.6008 as a par of below Bollinger. Ii this level also I put FIBO 0.0 and consider this level become 2nd Support. So, If 1.6080 is break , than 1.6008 will be next target. I believe this 1.6008 level will be GBP's below trading range in this week.

Trading Range : 1.6008 – 1,6267
Support : 1.6080 , 1.6008
Resistance : 1.6267
Trend : Potential Down


Happy Trading !

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 6 to 10 2009

Support : 1.6339

Strong Support : 1.6218 as last two weeks

Resistance : 1.6582 as last two weeks

Trading Range : 1.6216 – 1.6401 around 200 points .
By the end of this week , likely it
seems trading range will be in 1.6216 - 1.6339

Trend : Globaly trend seems in bearrish . GBP clearly seems in
Potential Down and targeting to its strong support in
1.6218


HIMAWAN FOREX method :

In last two weeks GBP are traded in sideways ranging area . So there’s no significant changing since last week . I still use last two weeks indicator to put the Support and Resistance levels for Trading Signal in this week.

STRONG SUPPORT line is still placed in level 1.6218 as last two weeks forecast.

First Support is placed in 1.6339 and this level seems potentialy breaked

RESISTANCE line is still placed in 1.6582 s last two weeks forecast .

Trend Line below ( in white color ) start in point where tail of candlestick hit the middle Bolinger . While Trend line upper ( in white color ) start in point where upper tail of candle stick hit the Resistance level line .

VOLUME indicator shows green lines ( long position ) appears but only once than red line ( short position ) comes twice. This shows trend will potential down turn.

To predict trading level range area , I’m using FIBONACCI lines ;
-FIBO 100.0 in level 1.6403 as I've been used since two weeks.
This level still relevant because in last two weeks GBP traded in Sideways
ranging area

-Opposite with last week forecast in this week forecast , as GBP's
potential Down Turn , I put FIBO 0.0 in level 1.6218 which is
STRONG SUPPORT level


ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

Important Economic Calendar with relevant impact for GBP / USD is :

July 9th :
Trade Balance : Last : -7.00 , forecast : -6.65
Trade Non EU : Last : -4.12 , forecast : -3.9

shows not a significant improvement of GBP economic , and that makes
investors put in a doubt of GBP's economic recovery

CORRELATION OF PRICE AND VOLUME

In theory , the rising of price it should be followed with rising of transaction volume . On the other way decreasing of price should be followed by decreasing of transaction volume also. So, in case of the price are moving up , but transaction volume are moving down , it can be assume as false rising or false transaction. In this case the rising of price may occur just because of movement from only a few of some speculative brokers , just for keep the price in high level in order to saving their portfolio because they already bought when the price are in Overbought condition. In fact the real of Supply – Demand is not that good.

Systematically the correlation theory of Price and Volume are as follows :

-When the Price moving up, and Volume moving up , it means market
getting stronger
-When the Price moving down , and Volume moving down , it means market
getting weaker
-When the Price moving down , but Volume moving up , it means market
will getting weaker
-When the Price moving down , but Volume moving down , it means market
will getting stronger

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JUNE 29 to JULY 3

GBP / USD

Support : 1.6218

Resistance : 1.6582

Trading Range : 1.6401 – 1.6655 . By the end of this week , likely it
seems trading range will be in 1.6495 – 1.6655

Trend : Globaly trend seems in Side Ways as last week trading
range with Potential Down if GBP fail to break 1.6600 level.


HIMAWAN FOREX method :

There’s no significant movement in last week so I still use last week indicator to make Trading Signal in this week.

SUPPORT line is still placed in level 1.6218 as last week forecast.

RESISTANCE line is still placed in 1.6582 s last week forecast .

Trend Line below ( in white color ) start in point where tail of candlestick hit the middle Bolinger . While Trend line upper ( in white color ) start in point where upper tail of candle stick hit the Resistance level line .

VOLUME indicator shows green lines ( long position ) appears but only once than red line ( short position ) remain comes . This shows trend will potential down turn.

To predict trading level range area , I’m using FIBONACCI lines ;
-FIBO 100.0 in level 1.6403 where Moving Average are crossing 2 times
( the same as last week )
-FIBO 0.0 in level 1.6700 a level where upper Bolinger predicted will be crossed the Trend line ( in white color )
-FIBO 161.8 in level 1.6218 in par of Support level

ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

Important Economic Calendar with relevant impact for GBP / USD is :

June 29th

-BOE Consumer Credit
-Mortgage Approval
-Mortgage Lending