EUR USD September 21 - 25 Technically Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

EUR USD is closed at 1.4702 in September 18 , while at September 11 closed at 1.4579. Fundamentaly this EUR USD reinforcement are caused by positives of some economic indicator from some large country such Germany and France.

In example , Germany Product Price Index ( PPI ) is raise 0.5 % higher than it forecast 0.1 % , indicate there is a strength to break away from any longer deflation.

Some high impact Fundamental Indicators for EUR as follows :

period September 7 – 11 :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Industrial Production : forecast : 1.6 % fact : - 9.9 %
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %
French Industrial Production : forecast : 0.6 % fact : 0.1 %

period September 14 – 18 :

Industrial Production m/m : forecast : - 0,3 % fact : -0.3 %
German ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 59.8 fact : 57.7
EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 57.8 fact : 59.6
CPI y / y : forecast : -0.2 % fact : -0.2 %
Trade Balance : forecast : 1.2 B fact : 6.8 B
German PPI m / m : forecast : 0.1 % fact : 0.5 %
EUR Current Account : forecast : - 4.3 B fact : 6.6 B


During this September 21 – 25 period , some high impact Fundamental Indicator are :

French Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.4 raise than last month 50.8 . The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

German Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.0 raise than last month 49.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 49.8 raise than last month 48.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Services PMI
Forecast 50.0 raise than last month 49.9. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

M3 Money Supply y / y
Forecast 2.7 % decline than last month 3.0 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Private Loans y / y
Forecast 0.3 % decline than last month 0.6 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Commonly considering those positive forecasts , we can conclude the optimism of Euro economic recovery will still infulence the trend of EUR USD in this week

Keep in mind in this week the G-20 conference will be held at September 24-25 . It is strong possibility that Volume transaction will decline during this conference because a lot of traders will be await of the conference result.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

To make a proper Trend Line , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two moving average are crossover already. Then Fibonacci 100 at 1.5045 in a par of closing level at past 2008 August 8.

Considering the Curent Trend Line , I can assume this week target will be at level 1.4835. The breaking of 1.4835 will lead pairs toward next target which it will be 1.5045 , as the tilt angle of Curent Trend Line and also considering this level is Closing level at 2008 August 8 . To conform this bullish scenario , then the pairs must be stay between Bollinger Middle Band and Bollinger Upper Band.

But if we see in the Stocastic Oscilator , pairs will decline to level 1.4589 Fibonacci 38.2 then it willl raise again to level 1.4766 Fibonacci 61.8 . This movement prediction described as blue dot line in my chart.

Keep beware to emerge of Triangle Formation possibility . If it happen I assume it will be stay around Fibonacci 23.6 level 1.4400 near Bollinger Middle Band , and I put this level as Stop Loss level because however it is stil possible the pairs will decline lower than this level.


Trading range : 1.4589 – 1.4835
Support : 1.4589 , 1.4520
Resistance : 1.4766 , 1.4835
Target : 1.4835 - 1.5045
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading


Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD September 14 – 18 Fundamental & Technical Analysis

EUR USD closed in 1.4579 in last week period. The US Dollar weakness and positives EUR USD economic indicators are influence the strength of EUR USD. Some of those positives indicators as follows :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %

This also conforming in making FOREX Forecast , there is a connection or correlation between Fundamental and Technical Analysis.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

Entering this week , some High Impact Fundamental for EUR USD as follows :

Industrial Production m/m :
From -0.6% forecast moving up to – 0.3 % The actual number will be publish at September 14

German ZWE Economic Sentiment
From 56.1 forecast moving up to 59.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment :
From 54.8 forecast moving up to 57.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

CPI y / y
From -0.2 % forecast still certain at – 0.2 % The actual number will be publish at September 16.

German PPI m / m
From – 1.5 % forecast moving up to 0.1 % The actual number will be publish at September 18.


EUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
From – 5.3 B forecast moving up to – 4.3 B The actual number will be publish at September 18

Generally from those Fundamental Forecasts , we can conclude market analysts do have optimism regarding Euro zone economic growth.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

Considering analysts optimism as Fundamental analysis above , in Technical Analysis this week I believe EUR USD will be trade in range 1.4347 – 1.4692 in target toward 1.4692 Fibonacci 161.8

As your consideration to knows if EUR USD still stay in bullish mode , then the pairs must traded stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band. If the pairs moving down below Bollinger Middle Band , then you must aware for the next movement.

One important thing must consider is , after continously moving up gradually EUR USD usually will have its turning point to pull back retracement and make a triangle formation. I consider this third triangle point will be around 1.4347 or even lower around 1.4289 Fibonacci 61.8 ( point “A” in my chart ). To confirm my consideration we could see in these levels , the two Moving Average are crossover for several times during past period. If you stay in Long mode , then I suggest you to put 1.4289 as Stop Loss.


Trading Range : 1.4347 – 1.4692
Support : 1.4347 , 1.4289
Stop Loss : 1.4289
Resistance : 1.4692 , 1.4725
Trend : Bullish potential Up
Target : 1.4692

Happy Trading,

Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD Weekly Target to 1.4340

As I wrote in my last article , EUR will have its test key level around 1.4383 ( labelled with point A in my last chart , described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line) .

And we can see last week EUR failled to break this test key level. A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and bring pairs to sideways mode.

Next Movement :

In this week , EUR USD seems will have a smaller Trading Range than last week , and target to 1.4340 by the end of this week. Indicate by crossover between Trend Upper Line and Trend Below Line.

The pairs will be stay in sideways mode but it still intact above my Trend Below Line ( in red color ) as describe in my chart. The pairs will also trade above Bollinger Middle Line and this conformed my assumption.

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs below 1.4288 or stay around 1.4270 consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.

Trading Range : 1.4240 – 1.4380
Support : 1.4240
Stop Loss : 1.4200
Resistance : 1.4380
Trend : Sideways
Target : 1.4340


Happy Trading !! September 6 , 2009


Himawan Wardhana