FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :
EUR USD is closed at 1.4702 in September 18 , while at September 11 closed at 1.4579. Fundamentaly this EUR USD reinforcement are caused by positives of some economic indicator from some large country such Germany and France.
In example , Germany Product Price Index ( PPI ) is raise 0.5 % higher than it forecast 0.1 % , indicate there is a strength to break away from any longer deflation.
Some high impact Fundamental Indicators for EUR as follows :
period September 7 – 11 :
German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Industrial Production : forecast : 1.6 % fact : - 9.9 %
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %
French Industrial Production : forecast : 0.6 % fact : 0.1 %
period September 14 – 18 :
Industrial Production m/m : forecast : - 0,3 % fact : -0.3 %
German ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 59.8 fact : 57.7
EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 57.8 fact : 59.6
CPI y / y : forecast : -0.2 % fact : -0.2 %
Trade Balance : forecast : 1.2 B fact : 6.8 B
German PPI m / m : forecast : 0.1 % fact : 0.5 %
EUR Current Account : forecast : - 4.3 B fact : 6.6 B
During this September 21 – 25 period , some high impact Fundamental Indicator are :
French Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.4 raise than last month 50.8 . The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.
German Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.0 raise than last month 49.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.
Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 49.8 raise than last month 48.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.
Flash Services PMI
Forecast 50.0 raise than last month 49.9. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.
M3 Money Supply y / y
Forecast 2.7 % decline than last month 3.0 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25
Private Loans y / y
Forecast 0.3 % decline than last month 0.6 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25
Commonly considering those positive forecasts , we can conclude the optimism of Euro economic recovery will still infulence the trend of EUR USD in this week
Keep in mind in this week the G-20 conference will be held at September 24-25 . It is strong possibility that Volume transaction will decline during this conference because a lot of traders will be await of the conference result.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
To make a proper Trend Line , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two moving average are crossover already. Then Fibonacci 100 at 1.5045 in a par of closing level at past 2008 August 8.
Considering the Curent Trend Line , I can assume this week target will be at level 1.4835. The breaking of 1.4835 will lead pairs toward next target which it will be 1.5045 , as the tilt angle of Curent Trend Line and also considering this level is Closing level at 2008 August 8 . To conform this bullish scenario , then the pairs must be stay between Bollinger Middle Band and Bollinger Upper Band.
But if we see in the Stocastic Oscilator , pairs will decline to level 1.4589 Fibonacci 38.2 then it willl raise again to level 1.4766 Fibonacci 61.8 . This movement prediction described as blue dot line in my chart.
Keep beware to emerge of Triangle Formation possibility . If it happen I assume it will be stay around Fibonacci 23.6 level 1.4400 near Bollinger Middle Band , and I put this level as Stop Loss level because however it is stil possible the pairs will decline lower than this level.
Trading range : 1.4589 – 1.4835
Support : 1.4589 , 1.4520
Resistance : 1.4766 , 1.4835
Target : 1.4835 - 1.5045
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Trend : Potensial UP
Happy Trading
Himawan Wardhana
