EUR USD closed in 1.4579 in last week period. The US Dollar weakness and positives EUR USD economic indicators are influence the strength of EUR USD. Some of those positives indicators as follows :
German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %
This also conforming in making FOREX Forecast , there is a connection or correlation between Fundamental and Technical Analysis.
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :
Entering this week , some High Impact Fundamental for EUR USD as follows :
Industrial Production m/m :
From -0.6% forecast moving up to – 0.3 % The actual number will be publish at September 14
German ZWE Economic Sentiment
From 56.1 forecast moving up to 59.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.
EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment :
From 54.8 forecast moving up to 57.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.
CPI y / y
From -0.2 % forecast still certain at – 0.2 % The actual number will be publish at September 16.
German PPI m / m
From – 1.5 % forecast moving up to 0.1 % The actual number will be publish at September 18.
EUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
From – 5.3 B forecast moving up to – 4.3 B The actual number will be publish at September 18
Generally from those Fundamental Forecasts , we can conclude market analysts do have optimism regarding Euro zone economic growth.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :
Considering analysts optimism as Fundamental analysis above , in Technical Analysis this week I believe EUR USD will be trade in range 1.4347 – 1.4692 in target toward 1.4692 Fibonacci 161.8
As your consideration to knows if EUR USD still stay in bullish mode , then the pairs must traded stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band. If the pairs moving down below Bollinger Middle Band , then you must aware for the next movement.
One important thing must consider is , after continously moving up gradually EUR USD usually will have its turning point to pull back retracement and make a triangle formation. I consider this third triangle point will be around 1.4347 or even lower around 1.4289 Fibonacci 61.8 ( point “A” in my chart ). To confirm my consideration we could see in these levels , the two Moving Average are crossover for several times during past period. If you stay in Long mode , then I suggest you to put 1.4289 as Stop Loss.
Trading Range : 1.4347 – 1.4692
Support : 1.4347 , 1.4289
Stop Loss : 1.4289
Resistance : 1.4692 , 1.4725
Trend : Bullish potential Up
Target : 1.4692
Happy Trading,
Himawan Wardhana
