EUR USD this week Key point 1.4383

EUR USD has been trade in moving up trend in 3rd week in August 17 – 21 OPEN 1.4146 and CLOSE 1.4330 and Volume is in decline mode.

Then price traded in moving down trend in 4th week in August 24 – 28 , OPEN 1.4343 and CLOSE 1.4301 and Volume is in decline mode .

Considering these data and comparing it with Technical Analysis tools , I believe in the first week of May , the EUR USD will be trade in moving up trend with target toward 1.4442

EUR USD will have it test key level around 1.4383 labelled with point A in my chart described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line.

A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and pull back toward Fibonacci 61.8 around level 1.4288 and bring pairs to sideways mode.

But, breaking 1.4383 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.4442 .

To reach this 1.4442 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.4288 between Bolinger Middle Line and 1.4442 Bolinger Upper Line . It means stay intact above Fibonacci 50.0 retracement. It will conform a bullish momentum toward 1.4442 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.45..... . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs entering 1.4383 as Key Point consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.


Trading Range : 1.4244 – 1.4383 then 1.4288 – 1.4442
Support : 1.4205 , 1.4288
Stop Loss : 1.4205
Resistance : 1.4383 , 1.4442
Trend : Sideways with Potential Up
Target : 1.4383 then 1.4442


Happy Trading !! August 31, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

GBP USD Important Levels This Week

GBP USD stay in my 2nd scenario as my last forecast. Usually after a breakout from a long period of range , market would produce significant bullish momentum. Although level 1.6582 already breake , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside pullback is still suggested.

And we can see pairs are fail to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 and lead us to a downside corection , and pullback beyond Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 towards Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone .

As common terms in double top formation , pairs will find the below turning point first to start its rebound and begin moving up to the next top level. This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

Next Movement :

As common triangle formation , the pairs will need to find the third feed as below strong turning point for a rebound uptrend position. I believe the turning point will stay in around Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582. It also considered this level 1.6582 already became Strong Resistance for more than 3 weeks before 2009 July 31.

After rebound the pairs will go to Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 for a test key level until then there will be 2 scenarios :

Scenario 1 :

A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards below Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 . However I believe the pairs will still stay intact above the trend below line ( red straight line in my chart ) and then moving up again to continuing it bullish mode. Of course it will need several days to do this zig-zag mode until beyond Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 towards level 1.6934.

Scenario 2 :

If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , it will put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Epilogue :

Either scenario 1 or 2 , however the breaking of level 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level to reach the next target 1.7322 level. This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Suggestion :

if you in Long mode , don't entry below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 . Because below 1.6800 the pull back mode possibility is still strong. You better in patient and wait until the turning point is strong enough to push the pairs beyond Fibonacc1 61.8 level 1.6800 towards 1.7000


Trading Range : 1.6582 – 1.6934
Support : 1.6582
Resistance : 1.6934 1.7040
Trend : Rebound and Potential Up by the end of this week
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.6934 to 1.7040


Happy Trading !! August 10, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

GBPUSD in Two Scenario After Breaking 1 6582

After consistently working hard for several weeks in bullish rally since February 2009 , GBPUSD finally break the last three weeks Strong Resistance 1.6582.

Theres 2 scenarios that might happen :

Scenario I :

GBPUSD will entering it sideways range , and it should continue to rally in Trading Range between upper and medium Bollinger around level 1.6689 – 1.7162 . If Support around 1.6689 Fibonacci 50.0 hold. If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , then this bullish momentum is conformed.

Scenario II :

Although the nearest bias is strongly bullish , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside rebound is suggested. So we need to watch movement in area 1.6800 – 1.7000 A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 or Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone is possible

Next Movement :

Breaking 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level. This next movement also indicate by Middle Bollinger is in moving up position.


Suggestion :
No position below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8


Trading Range : 1.6689 – 1.7162
Support : 1.6689 , 1.6582
Resistance : 1.7040 , 1.7162
Trend : Potential Up
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.7040


Happy Trading !! August 4, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA
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