GBP USD stay in my 2nd scenario as my last forecast. Usually after a breakout from a long period of range , market would produce significant bullish momentum. Although level 1.6582 already breake , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside pullback is still suggested.
And we can see pairs are fail to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 and lead us to a downside corection , and pullback beyond Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 towards Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone .
As common terms in double top formation , pairs will find the below turning point first to start its rebound and begin moving up to the next top level. This view is clearly supported by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength
Next Movement :
As common triangle formation , the pairs will need to find the third feed as below strong turning point for a rebound uptrend position. I believe the turning point will stay in around Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582. It also considered this level 1.6582 already became Strong Resistance for more than 3 weeks before 2009 July 31.
After rebound the pairs will go to Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 for a test key level until then there will be 2 scenarios :
Scenario 1 :
A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards below Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 . However I believe the pairs will still stay intact above the trend below line ( red straight line in my chart ) and then moving up again to continuing it bullish mode. Of course it will need several days to do this zig-zag mode until beyond Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 towards level 1.6934.
Scenario 2 :
If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , it will put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.
Epilogue :
Either scenario 1 or 2 , however the breaking of level 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength
To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level to reach the next target 1.7322 level. This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.
Suggestion :
if you in Long mode , don't entry below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 . Because below 1.6800 the pull back mode possibility is still strong. You better in patient and wait until the turning point is strong enough to push the pairs beyond Fibonacc1 61.8 level 1.6800 towards 1.7000
Trading Range : 1.6582 – 1.6934
Support : 1.6582
Resistance : 1.6934 1.7040
Trend : Rebound and Potential Up by the end of this week
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.6934 to 1.7040
Happy Trading !! August 10, 2009
HIMAWAN WARDHANA
