After consistently working hard for several weeks in bullish rally since February 2009 , GBPUSD finally break the last three weeks Strong Resistance 1.6582.
Theres 2 scenarios that might happen :
Scenario I :
GBPUSD will entering it sideways range , and it should continue to rally in Trading Range between upper and medium Bollinger around level 1.6689 – 1.7162 . If Support around 1.6689 Fibonacci 50.0 hold. If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , then this bullish momentum is conformed.
Scenario II :
Although the nearest bias is strongly bullish , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside rebound is suggested. So we need to watch movement in area 1.6800 – 1.7000 A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 or Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone is possible
Next Movement :
Breaking 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength
To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level. This next movement also indicate by Middle Bollinger is in moving up position.
Suggestion :
No position below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8
Trading Range : 1.6689 – 1.7162
Support : 1.6689 , 1.6582
Resistance : 1.7040 , 1.7162
Trend : Potential Up
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.7040
Happy Trading !! August 4, 2009
HIMAWAN WARDHANA
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www.himawanforex.blogspot.com
