EUR USD October 12 – 16 Bullish in Narrower Trading Range

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :

ZEW Economic Sentiment
Expected 60.1 raising than last period 59.6. This number is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday October 13 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Industrial production m / m
Expected 0.9 % raising sharply than last period -0.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 14 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Core CPI y/y
Expected 1.2 % little weaker than last period at 1.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 15 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

ECB President Trichets Speaks
ECB President Trichets will speaks on Thursday October 15 , at 07.25 pm GMT+7

Trade Balance
Expected 7.9 B raising from last period at 6.8 B. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 16 at 05.00 pm GMT+7

Conclusion :

Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

Technically , in Stocastic Oscillator indicator seems the two Stocastic Oscillator lines were crossover already at the top and this indicate the trend will moving down . But there is still possibilities the trend will only stay in floating movement as described in point “ D “ in my chart. That's why to make a propper analysis we have to take a look another indicators as well.

While VOLUME indicator shows the market will getting stronger .

According to Fundamental optimism , the raising up of the market are conformed as Bullish mode but in smaller Trading Range. However the pairs rising will not be too sharp as last period. This situation indicate from Bollinger Band is getting narrow and the pairs are stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band.

Mean while level 1.4478 which was a Strong Resistance level for several times , is changed become a Strong Support level in this period . This situation also conformed the Bullish momentum of EUR USD.

In making the chart , considering the significantly trend movement comparing last period , I place Fibonacci 0.0 at level 1.4478 , because in this level the strong reversal point was happened as pointed “ B “ in my chart.

And for Fibonacci 100 , I still place it at 1.4843 , as my last week chart , considering this level is not broken yet . So I assume this level is still significant as Fibonacci 100.

You must be aware around 1.4659. If the pairs are moving down , it suppose to hold around 1.4617 Fibonacci 38.2 ( pointed “ C “ in my chart ). Because in this level in October 2nd , there are two Moving Average lines were crossover with Bolinger Middle Line . And thats why I place this level as Support 1.

Hold your position or becarefull if the falling movement is appear as last Friday happened. Wait until the pairs raising up again , and you can entry in Long mode. If the pairs hit the Resistance 1 at 1.4791 , it will lead the pairs to keep moving up toward Resistance 2 at 1.4843. I describe the trend movement prediction as blue line in my chart

Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.


Trading range : 1.4659 – 1.4843 between Fibo 50 – Fibo 100
Support 1 : 1.4617 Fibo 38.2
Support 2 : 1.4478
Resistance 1 : 1.4791
Resistance 2 : 1.4843 Fibo 100 as last week
Target : 1.4755
Stop Loss : 1.4478 Fibo 00
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading,

Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD OCTOBER 5 -9 SLOWER in BULLISH MOMENTUM

As my prediction in my last article : “ EUR USD September 21 – 25 Techincally Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental“ , the EUR USD is really fell and breaking 1.4589 as I wrote.

In this week , I predict the EUR USD will continuing it bullish momentum but in slower movement. Here's my analysis :

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :

Retail Sales
Rise at – 0.2 % better than expectation at – 0.4 %. This number is conformed already at Sunday October 5.

Final GDP q/q
The economy shrank by only - 0.1% in the second quarter , and that is not too bad in Europe. By this period the number will expected unchanged at - 0.1 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 7 at 9:00 GMT

German Industrial Production m/m
A rise of 1.6% is expected to follow last month’s 0.9% decline. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 8

ECB Press Conference
Considering that Europe economic is slowly recovering , ECB will probably keep the Bid Rate unchanged, at 1%. This major event is due on Thursday October 8 at 11:45 GMT.

French Industrial Production
Europe’s second largest economy, France, also showed slow and steady recovery. Industrial production is expected to rising by 0.4% after a 0.1% rise last month. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 9 at 6:00 GMT.

Jean Claude Trichet Speech
As well as ECB Press Conference, as the head of ECB , Trichet's speech will influence the market movement . This event is due on Friday at 8:30 GMT.


Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.



TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


Techincally , the Stocastic Oscillator indicator shows the trend will moving up , considering the two Oscillator's lines are crossover in bottom level already.

Meanwhile VOLUME indicator shows falling movement it may appear. But considering the Fundamental optimism , a raising movement it may conformed. Even so , the raising movement will be slowly considering the market movement in this period is still resist by falling Upper Trend Line ( blue trend line in my chart )

As my last week chart , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two Moving Average lines are crossover already. And Fibonacci 100 at 1.4843 , lower than last period.

I predict the market will fluctuation around Fibonacci 61.8 at 1.4645 but it will stay intact in Bullish Momentum .

Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of ECB Press Conference and Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.

Trading range : 1.4432 – 1.4709
Support : 1.4432 Fibo 23.6
Resistance : 1.4709 ( two MA lines are crossover )
Target : 1.4645 around Fibo 61.8
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Closing level this week : 1.4522
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading



Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD September 21 - 25 Technically Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental

FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

EUR USD is closed at 1.4702 in September 18 , while at September 11 closed at 1.4579. Fundamentaly this EUR USD reinforcement are caused by positives of some economic indicator from some large country such Germany and France.

In example , Germany Product Price Index ( PPI ) is raise 0.5 % higher than it forecast 0.1 % , indicate there is a strength to break away from any longer deflation.

Some high impact Fundamental Indicators for EUR as follows :

period September 7 – 11 :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Industrial Production : forecast : 1.6 % fact : - 9.9 %
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %
French Industrial Production : forecast : 0.6 % fact : 0.1 %

period September 14 – 18 :

Industrial Production m/m : forecast : - 0,3 % fact : -0.3 %
German ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 59.8 fact : 57.7
EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment : forecast : 57.8 fact : 59.6
CPI y / y : forecast : -0.2 % fact : -0.2 %
Trade Balance : forecast : 1.2 B fact : 6.8 B
German PPI m / m : forecast : 0.1 % fact : 0.5 %
EUR Current Account : forecast : - 4.3 B fact : 6.6 B


During this September 21 – 25 period , some high impact Fundamental Indicator are :

French Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.4 raise than last month 50.8 . The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

German Flush Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 51.0 raise than last month 49.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Manufacturing PMI
Forecast 49.8 raise than last month 48.2. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

Flash Services PMI
Forecast 50.0 raise than last month 49.9. The actual fact will publish at Wednesday September 23.

M3 Money Supply y / y
Forecast 2.7 % decline than last month 3.0 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Private Loans y / y
Forecast 0.3 % decline than last month 0.6 % . The actual fact will publlish at Friday September 25

Commonly considering those positive forecasts , we can conclude the optimism of Euro economic recovery will still infulence the trend of EUR USD in this week

Keep in mind in this week the G-20 conference will be held at September 24-25 . It is strong possibility that Volume transaction will decline during this conference because a lot of traders will be await of the conference result.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

To make a proper Trend Line , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two moving average are crossover already. Then Fibonacci 100 at 1.5045 in a par of closing level at past 2008 August 8.

Considering the Curent Trend Line , I can assume this week target will be at level 1.4835. The breaking of 1.4835 will lead pairs toward next target which it will be 1.5045 , as the tilt angle of Curent Trend Line and also considering this level is Closing level at 2008 August 8 . To conform this bullish scenario , then the pairs must be stay between Bollinger Middle Band and Bollinger Upper Band.

But if we see in the Stocastic Oscilator , pairs will decline to level 1.4589 Fibonacci 38.2 then it willl raise again to level 1.4766 Fibonacci 61.8 . This movement prediction described as blue dot line in my chart.

Keep beware to emerge of Triangle Formation possibility . If it happen I assume it will be stay around Fibonacci 23.6 level 1.4400 near Bollinger Middle Band , and I put this level as Stop Loss level because however it is stil possible the pairs will decline lower than this level.


Trading range : 1.4589 – 1.4835
Support : 1.4589 , 1.4520
Resistance : 1.4766 , 1.4835
Target : 1.4835 - 1.5045
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Trend : Potensial UP

Happy Trading


Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD September 14 – 18 Fundamental & Technical Analysis

EUR USD closed in 1.4579 in last week period. The US Dollar weakness and positives EUR USD economic indicators are influence the strength of EUR USD. Some of those positives indicators as follows :

German Factory Orders : forecast : 2.0 % fact : 3.5 %
German Trade Balance : forecast : 11.2 fact : 12.4
German Final CPI : forecast : 0.2 % fact : 0.2 %

This also conforming in making FOREX Forecast , there is a connection or correlation between Fundamental and Technical Analysis.


FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS :

Entering this week , some High Impact Fundamental for EUR USD as follows :

Industrial Production m/m :
From -0.6% forecast moving up to – 0.3 % The actual number will be publish at September 14

German ZWE Economic Sentiment
From 56.1 forecast moving up to 59.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

EUR ZWE Economic Sentiment :
From 54.8 forecast moving up to 57.8 The actual number will be publish at September 15.

CPI y / y
From -0.2 % forecast still certain at – 0.2 % The actual number will be publish at September 16.

German PPI m / m
From – 1.5 % forecast moving up to 0.1 % The actual number will be publish at September 18.


EUR CURRENT ACCOUNT
From – 5.3 B forecast moving up to – 4.3 B The actual number will be publish at September 18

Generally from those Fundamental Forecasts , we can conclude market analysts do have optimism regarding Euro zone economic growth.


TECHNICAL ANALYSIS :

Considering analysts optimism as Fundamental analysis above , in Technical Analysis this week I believe EUR USD will be trade in range 1.4347 – 1.4692 in target toward 1.4692 Fibonacci 161.8

As your consideration to knows if EUR USD still stay in bullish mode , then the pairs must traded stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band. If the pairs moving down below Bollinger Middle Band , then you must aware for the next movement.

One important thing must consider is , after continously moving up gradually EUR USD usually will have its turning point to pull back retracement and make a triangle formation. I consider this third triangle point will be around 1.4347 or even lower around 1.4289 Fibonacci 61.8 ( point “A” in my chart ). To confirm my consideration we could see in these levels , the two Moving Average are crossover for several times during past period. If you stay in Long mode , then I suggest you to put 1.4289 as Stop Loss.


Trading Range : 1.4347 – 1.4692
Support : 1.4347 , 1.4289
Stop Loss : 1.4289
Resistance : 1.4692 , 1.4725
Trend : Bullish potential Up
Target : 1.4692

Happy Trading,

Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD Weekly Target to 1.4340

As I wrote in my last article , EUR will have its test key level around 1.4383 ( labelled with point A in my last chart , described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line) .

And we can see last week EUR failled to break this test key level. A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and bring pairs to sideways mode.

Next Movement :

In this week , EUR USD seems will have a smaller Trading Range than last week , and target to 1.4340 by the end of this week. Indicate by crossover between Trend Upper Line and Trend Below Line.

The pairs will be stay in sideways mode but it still intact above my Trend Below Line ( in red color ) as describe in my chart. The pairs will also trade above Bollinger Middle Line and this conformed my assumption.

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs below 1.4288 or stay around 1.4270 consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.

Trading Range : 1.4240 – 1.4380
Support : 1.4240
Stop Loss : 1.4200
Resistance : 1.4380
Trend : Sideways
Target : 1.4340


Happy Trading !! September 6 , 2009


Himawan Wardhana

EUR USD this week Key point 1.4383

EUR USD has been trade in moving up trend in 3rd week in August 17 – 21 OPEN 1.4146 and CLOSE 1.4330 and Volume is in decline mode.

Then price traded in moving down trend in 4th week in August 24 – 28 , OPEN 1.4343 and CLOSE 1.4301 and Volume is in decline mode .

Considering these data and comparing it with Technical Analysis tools , I believe in the first week of May , the EUR USD will be trade in moving up trend with target toward 1.4442

EUR USD will have it test key level around 1.4383 labelled with point A in my chart described by crossover between Upper Trend Line with Below Trend Line.

A faillure to break 1.4383 will lead pairs to downside correction and pull back toward Fibonacci 61.8 around level 1.4288 and bring pairs to sideways mode.

But, breaking 1.4383 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.4442 .

To reach this 1.4442 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.4288 between Bolinger Middle Line and 1.4442 Bolinger Upper Line . It means stay intact above Fibonacci 50.0 retracement. It will conform a bullish momentum toward 1.4442 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.45..... . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position

Suggestion :

You can entry market in Long mode , only if pairs still stay above 1.4288. Then always becarefull when pairs entering 1.4383 as Key Point consider it might be downside Turning Point as well.


Trading Range : 1.4244 – 1.4383 then 1.4288 – 1.4442
Support : 1.4205 , 1.4288
Stop Loss : 1.4205
Resistance : 1.4383 , 1.4442
Trend : Sideways with Potential Up
Target : 1.4383 then 1.4442


Happy Trading !! August 31, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

GBP USD Important Levels This Week

GBP USD stay in my 2nd scenario as my last forecast. Usually after a breakout from a long period of range , market would produce significant bullish momentum. Although level 1.6582 already breake , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside pullback is still suggested.

And we can see pairs are fail to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 and lead us to a downside corection , and pullback beyond Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 towards Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone .

As common terms in double top formation , pairs will find the below turning point first to start its rebound and begin moving up to the next top level. This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

Next Movement :

As common triangle formation , the pairs will need to find the third feed as below strong turning point for a rebound uptrend position. I believe the turning point will stay in around Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582. It also considered this level 1.6582 already became Strong Resistance for more than 3 weeks before 2009 July 31.

After rebound the pairs will go to Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 for a test key level until then there will be 2 scenarios :

Scenario 1 :

A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards below Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 . However I believe the pairs will still stay intact above the trend below line ( red straight line in my chart ) and then moving up again to continuing it bullish mode. Of course it will need several days to do this zig-zag mode until beyond Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 towards level 1.6934.

Scenario 2 :

If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , it will put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level . This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Epilogue :

Either scenario 1 or 2 , however the breaking of level 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also put the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level to reach the next target 1.7322 level. This next movement also indicate by Bollinger Middle Band is in moving up position.


Suggestion :

if you in Long mode , don't entry below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 . Because below 1.6800 the pull back mode possibility is still strong. You better in patient and wait until the turning point is strong enough to push the pairs beyond Fibonacc1 61.8 level 1.6800 towards 1.7000


Trading Range : 1.6582 – 1.6934
Support : 1.6582
Resistance : 1.6934 1.7040
Trend : Rebound and Potential Up by the end of this week
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.6934 to 1.7040


Happy Trading !! August 10, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

GBPUSD in Two Scenario After Breaking 1 6582

After consistently working hard for several weeks in bullish rally since February 2009 , GBPUSD finally break the last three weeks Strong Resistance 1.6582.

Theres 2 scenarios that might happen :

Scenario I :

GBPUSD will entering it sideways range , and it should continue to rally in Trading Range between upper and medium Bollinger around level 1.6689 – 1.7162 . If Support around 1.6689 Fibonacci 50.0 hold. If the pair can hold position above 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8 , then this bullish momentum is conformed.

Scenario II :

Although the nearest bias is strongly bullish , the uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration and potential downside rebound is suggested. So we need to watch movement in area 1.6800 – 1.7000 A failure to hold position above Fibonacci 61.8 level 1.6800 will lead us to a downside corection , and pullback towards Fibonacci 50.0 level 1.6689 or Fibonacci 38.2 level 1.6582 zone is possible

Next Movement :

Breaking 1.6582 will be a trigger to reach further upside gains are expected towards 1.7332. As I wrote in my previous forecast , this 1.7332 level will be GBPUSD next target . This view is clearly supported  by its weekly chart which are bullish and pointing higher suggesting more strength

To reach this 1.7332 level , the pair need to hold position above 1.7040 . It will conform a significant bullish momentum toward 1.7332 and also putting the pair on the path to further upside gains towards the 1.7000 level as psycho level. This next movement also indicate by Middle Bollinger is in moving up position.


Suggestion :
No position below 1.6800 Fibonacci 61.8


Trading Range : 1.6689 – 1.7162
Support : 1.6689 , 1.6582
Resistance : 1.7040 , 1.7162
Trend : Potential Up
Entry Point : above 1.6800
Target : 1.7040


Happy Trading !! August 4, 2009

HIMAWAN WARDHANA
------------------------
visit my Blog to see how my method works
www.himawanforex.blogspot.com

CORRELATION OF PRICE AND VOLUME

Dear readers.

In any Technical Analysis FORUM , discussion about Volume indicator are rare. In fact in my experience , this Volume indicator is useful .

In theory , the rising of Price it should be followed with rising of transaction Volume . On the other way decreasing of Price should be followed by decreasing of transaction Volume also. So, in case of the Price are moving up , but transaction Volume are moving down , it can be assume as false rising or false transaction. In this case the rising of Price may occur just because of movement from only a few of some speculative brokers , just for keep the Price in high level in order to saving their portfolio because they already bought when the Price are in Overbought condition. In fact the real of Supply – Demand is not that good.

Systematically the correlation theory of Price and Volume as follows :

- When the Price moving up, and Volume moving up , it means market
getting stronger

- When the Price moving up , and Volume moving down , it means market
getting weaker

- When the Price moving down , but Volume moving up , it means market
will getting weaker

- When the Price moving down , but Volume moving down , it means market
will getting stronger

Off course this method is not 100 % accurate . But according to my experience I can tell around 70 % accurate. It still useful as trading tools as well.

Practically to execute your decision in trading , you need to compare or combine one technical analysis method with others method , as I usually do in my HIMAWAN FOREX’s method.

To see how this correlation works , you can see these 2 charts below :

Chart 1 :
PRICE down VOL up = market getting Weaker
PRICE up VOL up = market getting Stronger




Chart 2 :
PRICE up VOL down = market getting Weaker
PRICE down VOL down =market getting Stronger



Happy trading !!




Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX EUR USD Looking For a Strong Turning Point

EUR / USD already makes two huge triangle formation in :
-May 28 : 1st reversal in level : 1.3787
-June 16 : 2nd reversal in level : 1.3743
-July 8 : 3rd reversal in level : 1.3831

After 3rd reversal the market trading on a start of a new uptrend that will lead into new highs toward 1.4296 and then entering bullish scenario with next target to 1.4363.
A break of the 1.4230 area will confirm that scenario. Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its bullish scenario.

I placed Fibonacci 0.0 in level 1.3833 where huge reversal happened two times ; May 28 and July 8 . And place Fibonacci 100.0 in level 1.4296 equal level with July 16 HIGH and July 27 HIGH. Others Fibonacci levels will takes their positions as seen in my chart.

Recently prices have already traded up to 50 % retracement area above 1.4065 , breaking 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.4115 and entering its new trading range between 1.4115 – 1.4296 . But still below 1.4265 the key level to reach 1.4296.

Since the market not powerful enough to break 1.4265 and not reach the target in 1.4296 Fibonacci 100 yet , the market will still trading below 1.4265 to looking for a strong turning point. Market will stay in sideways with trading range around 1.4115 – 1.4265 with 1.4215 as key level inside this sideways range. I suggest not to entry position below 1.1418 until the turning point certained.

At least , there are 3 ( three ) scenarios that might happen :

Scenario I :
Market endured and zig-zag around 1.4148 , following moving up Trend Line , and entering bullish scenario toward 1.4296. On the other hand if this 1.4148 break , then I strongly assumed Market will moving down and hit 1.4115 Fibonacci 61.8

Scenario II :
Market breaking 1.4148 and will moving down to makes a triangle formation with turning point in level 1.4115 Fibonacci 61.8 , and or level 1.4065 Fibonacci 50.0 . After this turning point been hit, market will have its rebound and moving up again to continuing the bullish scenario toward 1.4296

Scenario III :
Market will moving down and breaking 1.4065 Fibonacci 50.0 , then the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market


Suggestion :
Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its bullish scenario. But don’t entry position below 1.1418 until the turning point certained.


Trading Range : 1.4115 – 1.4296
Support : 1.4115 , 1.4065
Resistance : 1.4265 , 1.4296
Trend : Sideways with Potential Up
Target : 1.4296


Happy Trading !!! July 30, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX
------------------------
visit my Blog to see how my method works :
www.himawanforex.blogspot.com

FOREX EUR USD TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY 2009 JULY 27 to 31

As my prediction in EUR long term weekly analysis , in this week EUR will moving toward 1.4275 and then 1.4363 as its target. Entry point in 1.4230 is suggested considering its moving up trend.

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.3954 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) and Middle Bollinger are crossover . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 38.2 in a par of my Support level 1.4152. And that makes 1.4152 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.4152 is break , than the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market .

By place FIBO 38.2 in level 1.4152 , we can find FIBO 0.0 stay in level 1.4275 . I assumed this 1.4275 level as my Resistance level.

Trading Range : 1.4095 – 1.4275
Support : 1.4152
Resistance : 1.4275
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.4275 , 1.4363



Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

EUR in Long Term Weekly Analysis Target to 1.4363

After make two strong rebound in point A and point B in my chart , it is clearly seen EUR will keep moving up continuously toward 1.4363 as 2008 12 28 HIGH ( point E in my chart ). Trading range will be in : 1.4139 – 1.4363

In drawing Trend Line , I’m using point ( A ) as starting point where 1st reversal happened . Then grab the trend line hit the point ( B ) where 2nd reversal happened. We can see also this below Trend Line is touching the Middle Bollinger also.

In drawing upper Trend Line , I’m using point ( C ) as my starting point , considering a strong reversal happened in this position. Then grab the line until crossing point ( D ) where candle stick body crossed the Upper Bollinger.

In this point ( D ) level I put my Strong Support line : 1.4139 considering in this point ( D ) level , candle stick body crossed the Upper Bollinger.

To determine the target , I’m using level 1.4363 as 2008 12 28 HIGH ( point E in my chart ) as my target level , considering this level is crossing Upper Bollinger and crossing my below Trend Line in point ( F ) .


Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX GBP USD TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY 2009 JULY 27 to 31 2009

As seems in my chart , GBP this week will entering its sideways trade while continuing its moving up trend .

Resistances lie around 1.6525 ( FIBO 23.6 ) – 1.6582. A clear break of 1.6375 ( FIBO 61.8 ) would be bearish.

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6218 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing each other and also cross with Support level 1.6218 . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger ( point C in my chart ).

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5985 in a par of reversal level ( point A in my chart ) . And that makes 1.5985 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.5985 is break , then the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market.

I’m using reversal level 1.5985 ( point A in my chart ) as starting point to draw my below Trend Line ( in red color ) , grab the line crossing Support level 1.6218
( FIBO 100.0 ) with ending point hit the FIBO 61.8 level 1.6375.

For drawing upper Trend Line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail ( point B in my chart )

Between this Trend Lines , I conclude Trading Range will be in area level 1.6375 ( point D in my chart ) – 1.6582 ( point C in my chart )

Trading Range : 1.6375 – 1.6582
Support : 1.6375 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6582 , 1.6675
Trend : Sideways
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720

Click HERE to see my Chart



Happy Trading !!! July 27, 2009


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

GBP in Long Term Weekly Analysis

In using Techincal Analysis, even if you trade in short term market , you can not ignore a long term information. For example if you trade in daily market , its better for you to notice the weekly market Chart also. This will help you to make your Technical Analysis more accurate .

As seen in weekly chart , level 1.3…. ( around December 20008 ) claimed to be GBPS’s lowest level since August 2007. And start from Pebruary 2009 , we can see GBP begin its rebound and keep moving up continuously toward 1.6582 recently.

I found a Trend Line and FIBO 0.0 crossing point in 1.7332 level. In this level also I found two candle stick body are in a equal level ( point ( C ) ) in around September 2008. So, I conclude if 1.6582 is break , than GBP next target will be 1.7332. It is also can be assumed GBP trading range will be 1.6582 – 1.7332

In drawing trend line , I’m using point ( A ) as starting point where candle stick tail hit the below Bollinger , grab the line beyond point ( B ) where candle stick tail hit the medium Bollinger.

In drawing FIBO levels , I put FIBO 100 in a par level of point ( B ) and grab the line moving up until FIBO 0.0 crossed my Trend Line , and in parallel level with point ( C ) as my explanation above.


Happy Trading !!!


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 20 to 24 2009

As seems in my chart , GBP this week will entering its sideways trade while continuing its moving up trend .

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6223 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing over ( point C in my chart ) . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger ( point D in my chart ).

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5995 in a par of 2nd reversal level ( point A 2 in my chart ) . And that makes 1.5995 become a Strong Support level. If this 1.5995 is break , than the bullish structure will change into a deep bearish market.


I’m using 2nd reversal level ( point A2 in my chart ) as starting point to draw my below trend line ( in red color ) with ending point crossed the FIBO 100 level.

For drawing upper trend line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail ( point B in my chart )

Between this trend lines , I conclude Trading Range will be in area level 1.6380 ( point E in my chart ) – 1.6680 ( point D in my chart )

Trading Range : 1.6380 – 1.6680
Support : 1.6080 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6582 , 1.6720
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720


Happy Trading !!!


Himawan Wardhana
founder of HIMAWAN FOREX

GBP NEXT WEEK TRYING HARD TO BREAK 1 6582

It is clearly seen GBP are trying to break my Resistance level 1.6582 . Look at to the chart and watch highest GBP’s position in :
-June 2 closing at 1.6582
-June 11 closing at 1.6572
-June 29 closing at 1.6556
where GBP almost touch or close with 1.6582 level.

Mean while we can see at the bottom of the chart , GBP has 2 times huge reversal from its bottom level already ;
-June 5 closing at 1.5985
-July 8 closing at 1.6056

It is strongly assumed GBP will try to make a rally to break 1.6582 level .There are two possibilities can predict for next week . First possibility ; GBP will looking for its 3rd huge reversal and than jump beyond 1.6582 , and after than entering its new sideways range upper 1.6582 level. Second possibility ; GBP continue its moving up trend toward 1.6582 , breaking it , and than entering its new sideways range upper 1.6582 level

I placed FIBO 100 in level 1.6223 where two Moving Average trends ( red and blue line ) are crossing over . Grab the trend moving up ,and placed FIBO 0.0 in a par of upper Bollinger.

FIBO 161.0 are placed in level 1.5995 a par of 2nd reversal level. And that makes 1.5995 become a Strong Support level.

I’m using 2nd reversal level as starting point to draw my below trend line ( in red color ) with ending point hit the FIBO 100 level.

For drawing upper trend line , I’m using starting point where Middle Bollinger touch the top of Candle Stick tail

Trading Range : 1.5995 – 1.6389 and moving up to 1.6223 – 1.6720
as seems in trend line ( red color )
Support : 1.5995, 1.6075 , 1.6218
Resistance : 1.6480, 1.6582, 1.6720
Trend : Potential Up
Target : 1.6582 , 1.6720


Happy Trading !!

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 13 to 17 2009

GBP This Week by HIMAWAN FOREX

As my last week prediction GBP is really moving down and breaking its 3 weeks Strong Support level 1.6218.

It might be investors are put in a doubt about GBP's trade balance , and predict the trade balance will be stay in – 7 or below. And this prediction push GBP to a bearrish market.

Since theres a significant downfall , in this week we are no more use level 1.6582 as Resistance level and level 1.6218 as Strong Support . A newly parameter is needed. Eventhough level 1.6218 is still might consider as a pshycological level.

I believe in this week GBP is in potential down trend. my Technical Analysis as appear in my chart , theres 2 trend line ( in white line color ) are sharply declined. But still theres rebound posibility as drawn in third trend line ( in white dotted color )

Please watch the “A” label below part of chart. This “A” label indicate a
point of croosingover between two trendlines . This point also stay in level 1.6008 as a par of below Bollinger. Ii this level also I put FIBO 0.0 and consider this level become 2nd Support. So, If 1.6080 is break , than 1.6008 will be next target. I believe this 1.6008 level will be GBP's below trading range in this week.

Trading Range : 1.6008 – 1,6267
Support : 1.6080 , 1.6008
Resistance : 1.6267
Trend : Potential Down


Happy Trading !

HIMAWAN WARDHANA

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JULY 6 to 10 2009

Support : 1.6339

Strong Support : 1.6218 as last two weeks

Resistance : 1.6582 as last two weeks

Trading Range : 1.6216 – 1.6401 around 200 points .
By the end of this week , likely it
seems trading range will be in 1.6216 - 1.6339

Trend : Globaly trend seems in bearrish . GBP clearly seems in
Potential Down and targeting to its strong support in
1.6218


HIMAWAN FOREX method :

In last two weeks GBP are traded in sideways ranging area . So there’s no significant changing since last week . I still use last two weeks indicator to put the Support and Resistance levels for Trading Signal in this week.

STRONG SUPPORT line is still placed in level 1.6218 as last two weeks forecast.

First Support is placed in 1.6339 and this level seems potentialy breaked

RESISTANCE line is still placed in 1.6582 s last two weeks forecast .

Trend Line below ( in white color ) start in point where tail of candlestick hit the middle Bolinger . While Trend line upper ( in white color ) start in point where upper tail of candle stick hit the Resistance level line .

VOLUME indicator shows green lines ( long position ) appears but only once than red line ( short position ) comes twice. This shows trend will potential down turn.

To predict trading level range area , I’m using FIBONACCI lines ;
-FIBO 100.0 in level 1.6403 as I've been used since two weeks.
This level still relevant because in last two weeks GBP traded in Sideways
ranging area

-Opposite with last week forecast in this week forecast , as GBP's
potential Down Turn , I put FIBO 0.0 in level 1.6218 which is
STRONG SUPPORT level


ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

Important Economic Calendar with relevant impact for GBP / USD is :

July 9th :
Trade Balance : Last : -7.00 , forecast : -6.65
Trade Non EU : Last : -4.12 , forecast : -3.9

shows not a significant improvement of GBP economic , and that makes
investors put in a doubt of GBP's economic recovery

CORRELATION OF PRICE AND VOLUME

In theory , the rising of price it should be followed with rising of transaction volume . On the other way decreasing of price should be followed by decreasing of transaction volume also. So, in case of the price are moving up , but transaction volume are moving down , it can be assume as false rising or false transaction. In this case the rising of price may occur just because of movement from only a few of some speculative brokers , just for keep the price in high level in order to saving their portfolio because they already bought when the price are in Overbought condition. In fact the real of Supply – Demand is not that good.

Systematically the correlation theory of Price and Volume are as follows :

-When the Price moving up, and Volume moving up , it means market
getting stronger
-When the Price moving down , and Volume moving down , it means market
getting weaker
-When the Price moving down , but Volume moving up , it means market
will getting weaker
-When the Price moving down , but Volume moving down , it means market
will getting stronger

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JUNE 29 to JULY 3

GBP / USD

Support : 1.6218

Resistance : 1.6582

Trading Range : 1.6401 – 1.6655 . By the end of this week , likely it
seems trading range will be in 1.6495 – 1.6655

Trend : Globaly trend seems in Side Ways as last week trading
range with Potential Down if GBP fail to break 1.6600 level.


HIMAWAN FOREX method :

There’s no significant movement in last week so I still use last week indicator to make Trading Signal in this week.

SUPPORT line is still placed in level 1.6218 as last week forecast.

RESISTANCE line is still placed in 1.6582 s last week forecast .

Trend Line below ( in white color ) start in point where tail of candlestick hit the middle Bolinger . While Trend line upper ( in white color ) start in point where upper tail of candle stick hit the Resistance level line .

VOLUME indicator shows green lines ( long position ) appears but only once than red line ( short position ) remain comes . This shows trend will potential down turn.

To predict trading level range area , I’m using FIBONACCI lines ;
-FIBO 100.0 in level 1.6403 where Moving Average are crossing 2 times
( the same as last week )
-FIBO 0.0 in level 1.6700 a level where upper Bolinger predicted will be crossed the Trend line ( in white color )
-FIBO 161.8 in level 1.6218 in par of Support level

ECONOMIC CALENDAR :

Important Economic Calendar with relevant impact for GBP / USD is :

June 29th

-BOE Consumer Credit
-Mortgage Approval
-Mortgage Lending

THE COMPARISON FOREX AND STOCK

If you interest in financial market , specially in FOREX or Stock Market , it is important for you to know the difference or characteristic from each financial market product.

In this article , I make few comparison between FOREX and Stock Market as follows :

Trading Time :

In stock market trading , you can trade only during market hours. It means whatever position you are , either profit / loss , you must closed your transaction before market trading hours are closed. If you don’t close your position , than you will face “gap” risk by the next day. But in FOREX you can trade almost for 24 hours except Saturday and Sunday of course. It means, for example if you loose in New York market , than you still have opportunities in Asia or Australia market.


Characteristic :

In Stock Market , price of a stock may drop suddenly and falling down very deep ( we can call it “gap” ) , and than get stuck in its below level for a long time without any significant fluctuation. But in FOREX , a currency will keep fluctuated as international trade it self. A country will not let his currency falling down too deep or raising up too high , in order to keep its international trade balance .


Two Ways Trading Directions :

In local Stock trading, you can entry Sell position only if you already owned that Stock. It means you must Buy the Stock first. After that you can Sell it. The different in FOREX is you can do trading in two directions. For example ; you may entry Sell position , although you do not Buy it first.


Prediction :

To predict stock price of a company is not an easy job. Although you can evaluate a financial ratio analysis from published financial report , but remember financial report is a part of past period. The more important thing is how can you predict the future ?

For example , if you want to buy stock from a company dealing in Crude Palm Oil ( CPO ) . You need to know ; CPO exporter countries , how CPO’s process since park until crop , CPO’s characteristic quality , world CPO’s supply-demand , CPO’s price fluctuation either in exporter or importer countries , etc. Now you can conclude to become a successful stock trader , it’s so many things to learn just for one commodity . it’s too complicated.

Still it’s not secure you yet . It’s also important kira-kira “ what “Corporate Action “ will be taken by the company ? Is the company able to fulfil its liabilities ? You must carefully evaluate.

Trading in FOREX is not that complicated. By using Technical and Fundamental Analysis , read about news and economic calendar , following discussion in Forum , all of that thing you can find easily in internet. If you like to learn, then by times you will be understand how to predict trend of currency movement and make your trading plan by yourself.


Trading Failure :

It may happen a company fall in deep loss , and brings deep impact for it stock price . Or a company who break the stock market rule . In this case , stock may be “delisting” and pulled out from regular stock market. Of Course it will put investors in deep losses as well. In FOREX market , things like that would not happened because only big countries currency can be trade in universal common FOREX market.

yang diperdgangkan is currency utama world from trustworthy countries . Not a company per company. So in FOREX market , There is no “delisting” word.


HIMAWAN WARDHANA

FOREX TRADING SIGNAL WEEKLY JUNE 22 – 26 2009

GBP / USD

Support : 1.6239

Resistance : 1.6582

Trading Range : 1.6218 – 1.6582 . By the end of this week , likely it
seems trading range will be in 1.6110 – 1.6430

Trend : Globally trend seems Potential Down
But if trend moving up and breaking level 1.6545, then
level 1.6655 will be next target.
If trend moving down and breaking 1.6325 , then level
1.6110 will be next target

HIMAWAN FOREX method :

SUPPORT line is placed in level where two Moving Average indicator are crossed each other as seems in point A , and B . In this level also CANDLE STICK tail hit middle Bolinger in June 20, as seems in point C.

RESISTANCE line is placed in level where CANDLE STICK upside body hit upline Bolinger in June 2 .

Trend Line below ( in white color ) start in point B where two Moving Average are crossed each other . This point B also in SUPPORT line level. Grab line toward C point , this line shows trend will be potential down turn .

VOLUME indicator shows red lines ( short position ) appears continuously and it shows trend is potential down turn.

To predict trading level range area , I’m using FIBONACCI lines ;
-FIBO 100.0 in level 1.6403 where Moving Average are crossing 2 times
-FIBO 0.0 in level 1.6000 in par of Bolinger below line
-FIBO 161.8 in level 1.6655 in par of Bolinger upper line

HIMAWAN FOREX

HIMAWAN FOREX is a simply ways to do FOREX Technical Analysis by using few indicator tools which already provided in Meta Trader 4 , and combining with Economic Calendar as Fundamental Analysis . It’s very logic and can be easily learned. More often you follow my Blog , do practise with free Meta Trader 4 your self , than more faster you can understand how HIMAWAN FOREX’s works.