FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :
ZEW Economic Sentiment
Expected 60.1 raising than last period 59.6. This number is expected to be confirmed on Tuesday October 13 at 05.00 pm GMT+7
Industrial production m / m
Expected 0.9 % raising sharply than last period -0.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 14 at 05.00 pm GMT+7
Core CPI y/y
Expected 1.2 % little weaker than last period at 1.3 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 15 at 05.00 pm GMT+7
ECB President Trichets Speaks
ECB President Trichets will speaks on Thursday October 15 , at 07.25 pm GMT+7
Trade Balance
Expected 7.9 B raising from last period at 6.8 B. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 16 at 05.00 pm GMT+7
Conclusion :
Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Technically , in Stocastic Oscillator indicator seems the two Stocastic Oscillator lines were crossover already at the top and this indicate the trend will moving down . But there is still possibilities the trend will only stay in floating movement as described in point “ D “ in my chart. That's why to make a propper analysis we have to take a look another indicators as well.
While VOLUME indicator shows the market will getting stronger .
According to Fundamental optimism , the raising up of the market are conformed as Bullish mode but in smaller Trading Range. However the pairs rising will not be too sharp as last period. This situation indicate from Bollinger Band is getting narrow and the pairs are stay intact above Bollinger Middle Band.
Mean while level 1.4478 which was a Strong Resistance level for several times , is changed become a Strong Support level in this period . This situation also conformed the Bullish momentum of EUR USD.
In making the chart , considering the significantly trend movement comparing last period , I place Fibonacci 0.0 at level 1.4478 , because in this level the strong reversal point was happened as pointed “ B “ in my chart.
And for Fibonacci 100 , I still place it at 1.4843 , as my last week chart , considering this level is not broken yet . So I assume this level is still significant as Fibonacci 100.
You must be aware around 1.4659. If the pairs are moving down , it suppose to hold around 1.4617 Fibonacci 38.2 ( pointed “ C “ in my chart ). Because in this level in October 2nd , there are two Moving Average lines were crossover with Bolinger Middle Line . And thats why I place this level as Support 1.
Hold your position or becarefull if the falling movement is appear as last Friday happened. Wait until the pairs raising up again , and you can entry in Long mode. If the pairs hit the Resistance 1 at 1.4791 , it will lead the pairs to keep moving up toward Resistance 2 at 1.4843. I describe the trend movement prediction as blue line in my chart
Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.
Trading range : 1.4659 – 1.4843 between Fibo 50 – Fibo 100
Support 1 : 1.4617 Fibo 38.2
Support 2 : 1.4478
Resistance 1 : 1.4791
Resistance 2 : 1.4843 Fibo 100 as last week
Target : 1.4755
Stop Loss : 1.4478 Fibo 00
Trend : Potensial UP
Happy Trading,
Himawan Wardhana
