As my prediction in my last article : “ EUR USD September 21 – 25 Techincally Bullish Supported by Strong Fundamental“ , the EUR USD is really fell and breaking 1.4589 as I wrote.
In this week , I predict the EUR USD will continuing it bullish momentum but in slower movement. Here's my analysis :
FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Some of important Fundamental news in this week as follows :
Retail Sales
Rise at – 0.2 % better than expectation at – 0.4 %. This number is conformed already at Sunday October 5.
Final GDP q/q
The economy shrank by only - 0.1% in the second quarter , and that is not too bad in Europe. By this period the number will expected unchanged at - 0.1 %. This number is expected to be confirmed on Wednesday October 7 at 9:00 GMT
German Industrial Production m/m
A rise of 1.6% is expected to follow last month’s 0.9% decline. This number is expected to be confirmed on Thursday October 8
ECB Press Conference
Considering that Europe economic is slowly recovering , ECB will probably keep the Bid Rate unchanged, at 1%. This major event is due on Thursday October 8 at 11:45 GMT.
French Industrial Production
Europe’s second largest economy, France, also showed slow and steady recovery. Industrial production is expected to rising by 0.4% after a 0.1% rise last month. This number is expected to be confirmed on Friday October 9 at 6:00 GMT.
Jean Claude Trichet Speech
As well as ECB Press Conference, as the head of ECB , Trichet's speech will influence the market movement . This event is due on Friday at 8:30 GMT.
Commonly from those good Fundamental signs , I predict the EUR USD will stay in Bullish momentum.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Techincally , the Stocastic Oscillator indicator shows the trend will moving up , considering the two Oscillator's lines are crossover in bottom level already.
Meanwhile VOLUME indicator shows falling movement it may appear. But considering the Fundamental optimism , a raising movement it may conformed. Even so , the raising movement will be slowly considering the market movement in this period is still resist by falling Upper Trend Line ( blue trend line in my chart )
As my last week chart , I put Fibonacci 0.0 at 1.4309 where two Moving Average lines are crossover already. And Fibonacci 100 at 1.4843 , lower than last period.
I predict the market will fluctuation around Fibonacci 61.8 at 1.4645 but it will stay intact in Bullish Momentum .
Keep in mind to be carefull in your position toward due of ECB Press Conference and Jean Claude Trichet speech . An unexpected market movement may happen cause by panic respon from any rumors.
Trading range : 1.4432 – 1.4709
Support : 1.4432 Fibo 23.6
Resistance : 1.4709 ( two MA lines are crossover )
Target : 1.4645 around Fibo 61.8
Stop Loss : 1.4400
Closing level this week : 1.4522
Trend : Potensial UP
Happy Trading
Himawan Wardhana
